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The Trillions Tracker Methodology

This page describes the methodology and data used for The Trillions Tracker, available here.

This research builds on previous work by the Independent Research Group of the Indian G20 (The Triple Agenda, 2023), Bhattacharya A et al. (Financing a big investment push in emerging markets and developing countries for sustainable, resilient and inclusive recovery and growth, 2022), and Songwe, Stern and Bhattacharya (Finance for climate action: scaling up investment for climate and development, 2022).

For this research, we use data from:

  • The IMF World Economic Outlook (link)
  • The IMF Financial Data Query Tool (link)
  • IMF Staff Reports on the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST)
  • ONE Special Drawing Rights Tracker (link)
  • The World Bank's International Debt Statistics (IDS) (link)
  • The OECD DAC Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database (link)

Data and code to replicate the analysis are available on this GitHub repository.

TL;DR

The Trillions Tracker maps additional public finance available towards closing the $3 trillion gap identified by researchers for development and climate needs in low and middle income countries.

It uses 2019 as a baseline, pulling from the initial work, compared to resources available in 2022 (as well as some projected spending by MDBs and innovative finance). This work focuses on the US$2.5 trillion yearly official financing gap that must be closed by 2030, and does not track the $500 billion needed in private finance.

The Trillions Tracker considers:

  • Domestic resource mobilisation (DRM) via General Government Revenue data from the IMF, for developing and emerging economies, excluding China.
  • Gross disbursements of Official Development Assistance, from all official donors who report data to the OECD DAC.
  • Gross disbursements of non-concessional loans, from official bilateral and official multilateral sources (long-term, public and publicly guaranteed debt data from the World Bank International Debt Statistics)
  • Channelled special drawing rights (or currency equivalents) that have been committed via the IMF's Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST)

All data is presented in 2019 US dollars, in constant prices and exchange rates. The decision of which data sources and specifications to choose came from a desire to match as closely as possible to the baseline funding presented in the research by Bhattacharya A et al (2022, p.46).

Overview

Domestic Resources

We focus on resources from Emerging and Developing Economies (EMDEs), excluding China. The current list of EMDEs can be found here.

The source of "DRM" data is the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO, April 2024). We use General Government Revenue, as a share of GDP indicator (GGR_NGDP). This indicator measures the total revenue collected by the government (which includes central, state, and local governments) as a share of the country's nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This encompasses all revenues collected by the government, including taxes, social contributions, and other receipts (e.g., fines, fees, and income from government-owned enterprises).

We convert data to US dollars by multiplying the share of nominal GDP by the nominal GDP value in US dollars (indicator NGDPD). Last, we convert to constant prices using GDP deflators data from the IMF World Economic Outlook.

We calculate "progress" (i.e additional finance) as the additional total General Government Revenue in 2022, compared to 2019.

Note: small differences in the 2019 baselines numbers between the Trillions Tracker and analysis by Bhattacharya A et al. are related to the version of the World Economic Outlook used. The Trillions Tracker uses the most recent data, from April 2024.

Official Development Assistance

We focus on total gross disbursements from all official donors who report to the OECD Development Assistance Committee. That includes DAC members, non-DAC members, and multilateral organisations.

Gross disbursements are different from what is considered as headline ODA by the OECD. Since 2018, the OECD reports on a grant equivalent basis. That means that loans don't get reported at face value, but at discounted amounts considered to be equivalent to a grant.

By definition, gross disbursements are higher than net disbursements or grant equivalents because in any given year they take all the money disbursed, even if some will have to be paid back (with interest) in the future.

In their 2019 baseline figures, Bhattacharya A et al. use gross disbursements to all developing countries. This amount includes money that is reported as 'Developing Countries, unspecified' but that is actually spent in donor countries. That includes in-donor refugee costs (IDRC), in-donor student costs, and other non-flows like debt relief or development awareness spending.

For consistency we align with their methodology.

We convert data to 2019 US dollars in constant prices using the OECD DAC price and currency exchange deflators.

Non-concessional finance

We focus on multilateral and bilateral non-concessional lending. In both cases we look at Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) long-term external debt from official sources. We use data from the World Bank International Debt Statistics database.

Additionally, we look at special drawing rights (or currency equivalents) that have been channelled and committed via the IMF's PRGT and RST.

Multilateral

In order to get non-concessional lending, we use two indicators:

  • Multilateral disbursements (DT.DIS.MLAT.CD)
  • Multilateral concessional disbursements (DT.DIS.MLTC.CD)

Non-concessional disbursements are calculated as (total) multilateral disbursements minus multilateral concessional disbursements. The latest actual lending figures are from 2022.

In addition, we look at projected additional lending to 2030 based on MDB reforms. The July 2024 communique of the 3rd meeting of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBG) highlights that capital adequacy framework reforms have unlocked $357 billion in additional MDB lending headroom over the next decade. Whilst we don't know at what speed this lending headroom will become available, for the purposes of this analysis, we assume increases are spread evenly over the next decade. That means $35.7 billion in additional lending room each year.

By 2030, we will be seven years into the decade, thus $249.9 billion in MDB lending headroom would be unlocked, $185.8 billion in 2019 prices. Lending headroom is different from actual disbursements. However, we use it as a proxy to assess potential additional spending from MDBs.

Bilateral

In order to get non-concessional lending, we use two indicators:

  • Bilateral disbursements (DT.DIS.BLAT.CD)
  • Bilateral concessional disbursements (DT.DIS.BLTC.CD)

Non-concessional disbursements are calculated as total Bilateral debt disbursements minus bilateral concessional debt disbursements.

As with other sources, the Trillions Tracker aligns with Bhattacharya A et al. in using gross debt disbursements. The Independent Research Group considers a higher lending baseline for 2019, focusing instead on new debt commitments.

We convert to constant prices using GDP deflators data from the IMF World Economic Outlook.

Innovative Finance: Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)

The research by Bhattacharya A et al. doesn't include SDRs, as they were not yet being channelled when the report came out.

However, in their analysis, they group innovative finance (SDRs) targets with bilateral non-concessional. In 2021, G7 countries (and later affirmed by the G20) committed to channel US$100 billion of their SDRs (or equivalent contributions) to countries most in need. These were pledged through two IMF trust funds to on-lend the resources to low and vulnerable countries.

The Trillions Tracker includes estimates of official and expected SDR lending through 2030 based on committed amounts. Analysis was completed in partnership with Mark Plant and Charley Ward of the Center for Global Development. They are calculated using:

We add together RST and PRGT lending estimates and projections (as detailed below) to get one average annual figure for innovative finance, which is then added to the bilateral non-concessional flows.

Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT)

We have official lending figures through 2023. In order to estimate future lending up to 2030, we look at two scenarios - a high and a low scenario, and then we take a midpoint between the two as our projected figures.

Low scenario

  • For 2021-2023: We use data on PRGT commitments from IMF Staff Reports.
  • For 2024: we use a baseline of SDR 7 billion, in line with IMF staff projections for PRGT commitments (SDR 4-10 billion, with a baseline estimate of about SDR 7 billion).
  • For 2025-2030: We use IMF Staff Projections of average annual lending (2025-2034), of SDR 2.65 billion per year.

Based on the above, we estimate total PRGT commitments at SDR 3.85 billion per year, or SDR 38.5 billion between 2021 and 2030.

In SDR billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Committed 6 3.3 6.3
Projected 7 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.65

Total: SDR 38.53 billion | Average: SDR 3.85 billion per year over the 2021-2030 period

High scenario

  • For 2021-2023: We use data on PRGT commitments from IMF Staff Reports.
  • For 2024: we use a baseline of SDR 7 billion, in line with IMF staff projections for PRGT commitments (SDR 4-10 billion, with a baseline estimate of about SDR 7 billion).
  • For 2025-2030: We calculate an outer limit of possible PRGT commitments, given that there are SDR 19.68 billion in PRGT channelling pledges that have not yet been converted into signed commitments. This is on top of SDR 20.37 billion of uncommitted and undrawn resources already in the PRGT's coffers. Taken together, the PRGT's potential lending would be SDR30.05 for 2025-2030, or an annual average of SDR 6.68 billion.

Based on the above, we estimate total PRGT commitments at SDR 6.27 billion per year, or SDR 62.65 billion between 2021 and 2030.

In SDR billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Committed 6 3.3 6.3
Projected 7 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68

Total: SDR 62.65 billion | Average: SDR 6.27 billion per year over the 2021-2030 period

Mid-point scenario - used in the Trillions Tracker

  • For 2021-2023: We use data on PRGT commitments from IMF Staff Reports.
  • For 2024: We use a baseline of SDR 7 billion, in line with IMF staff projections for PRGT commitments (SDR 4-10 billion, with a baseline estimate of about SDR 7 billion).
  • For 2025-2030: We use SDR 5.06 billion per year, which is the average of the low and high scenarios, described above.

Based on the above, we estimate total PRGT commitments at SDR 5.3 billion per year, or SDR 52.96 billion between 2021 and 2030.

In SDR billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Committed 6 3.3 6.3
Projected 7 5.06 5.06 5.06 5.06 5.06 5.06

Total: SDR 52.96 billion | Average: SDR 5.3 billion per year over the 2021-2030 period

We convert to current USD using the September 17, 2024 exchange rate (1 USD = SDR 0.739792) then convert this into constant prices using GDP deflators data from the IMF World Economic Outlook.

Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST)

For 2022 to 2026, we use IMF Staff reports for RST commitments (approved and projected), which is in line with estimated medium-term demand.

Since we don't have projections for 2027-2030, we assume that the remainder of the unspecified SDR pledges - SDR 8.4 billion (based on data from ONE's SDR Tracker) can be channelled through the RST. After setting aside resources for the Deposit and Reserve Accounts as well as for the liquidity buffer, we find that usable loan resources will stand at SDR 5.3 billion — annual average of SDR 1.3 billion.

In SDR billions 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Committed 0.9 4.2
Projected 8 5 3.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Total: SDR 27.2 billion | Average: SDR 3 billion per year over the 2022-2030 period

We convert to current USD using the September 17, 2024 exchange rate (1 USD = SDR 0.739792) then convert this to constant prices using GDP deflators data from the IMF World Economic Outlook.

Total Innovative Finance

We add together the average annual RST and PRGT figures, in 2019 prices, to get one total for SDR lending/Innovative finance - $8.3 billion per year through 2030.